Municipal Election 2010

Polls And Rumours Of Polls Have Eisenberger Trailing

By Adrian Duyzer
Published October 13, 2010

The Spectator reported today that a poll conducted for the Di Ianni campaign has Di Ianni leading the race for mayor with 27 percent support, followed by 21 percent for Bratina and just 14 percent for Eisenberger.

According to the poll, 32 percent of voters remain undecided.

Di Ianni campaign manager Ken Audziss claims the poll was leaked, although given its source - a Di Ianni supporter who "received it from the campaign as an update" - it's hard for me to understand how the Di Ianni campaign expected this would remain confidential.

I've received several unconfirmed reports now, through various sources, about polls that have been conducted in the past few weeks.

The first rumour, which emerged a couple of weeks ago, had Di Ianni in front, followed by Eisenberger, with Bratina significantly behind.

Just this weekend I spoke with a politically well-connected person who said that a poll, which was conducted by a "reputable" polling firm and that was not done on behalf of the Di Ianni campaign, placed Bratina in the lead, followed by Di Ianni, followed by Eisenberger. When I mentioned this to another politically well-connected individual, he told me this was the third time he'd heard it.

Now there's this much more substantiated report about a poll that has Di Ianni in front. It's hard to say what's true, and it's hard to say what's accurate, but I do find it interesting that none of the polls I've heard about have Eisenberger ahead.

Two other thoughts:

1. Why haven't we seen any polls sponsored by local media yet? If I had the budget, I'd sponsor one myself. Let's see some publicly available polling data!

2. I'm trying to decide if the "news" that Bratina is ahead of Eisenberger is actually a strategy by the Di Ianni campaign. Suppose that it is not true and Eisenberger is in fact ahead of Bratina. Di Ianni could benefit from a belief that Bratina was in front, because it would appear to those who are opposed to Di Ianni that their best hope is to vote for Bratina - effectively splitting the vote between Bratina and Eisenberger and letting Di Ianni go up the middle.

Adrian Duyzer is an entrepreneur, business owner, and Associate Editor of Raise the Hammer. He lives in downtown Hamilton with his family. On Twitter: adriandz

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By allantaylor97 (registered) | Posted October 13, 2010 at 23:51:06

All sides are upset at the Pan Am Stadium issue and the mayor is wearing it. Its not much of a surprise to me that Eisenberger isn't ahead on any of the leaked reports. I don't place much faith in polls but frankly when the mayor has all sides upset is it really surprising that the public chooses ABF in polls that don't matter. Who knows what election day will bring but I've heard a lot of lets vote Baldsaro over those 3 clowns that I know won't materialize on election day so just relax and wait until the real count is in

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By T-rav (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 00:51:53

Not sure if I can buy any of that to be honest. I'm seeing A lot more eisenberger support and have been hearing a lot more of it in the past few days, I don't think we will really know until the election results are in. I find though that most of the people I know that were undecided a week ago have sided with the mayor.

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By trevorlikesbikes (registered) - website | Posted October 14, 2010 at 00:58:51

All i know is that when looking around at the quantity of lawn graffiti in my lowly 'hood, DiIanni has the the lion's share; and this scares the bejeebers outta me.

I also noticed a direct correlation between the amount of arches and wrought iron and the number of DiIanni signs.

I for one will not be voting for Curly, Larry or Moe ( or even Shemp for that matter)

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By T-rav (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 02:49:35

Yeah I have seen a lot of Larry signs too but in the 2006 election that was all I ever saw, I didn't think Fred stood a chance and he still won, I'm seeing a fair bit of Fred signs this time and a lot less Larry than last time around. I personally can still seen an Eisenberger win, I am seeing a lot of support and hearing a lot as I had said earlier, but I suppose at this time anything can still happen.

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By CHMLer (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 08:09:20

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By frank (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 08:26:44

^Doesn't make me think they're right at all...make me think "why would I listen to CHML?"

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By Kiely (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 08:50:35

^Doesn't make me think they're right at all...make me think "why would I listen to CHML?" - frank

Or vote for two people who can't see through Larry's medicine show to see him for the snake oil salesman he is.

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By seancb (registered) - website | Posted October 14, 2010 at 08:51:52

Can someone explain to me what in hell DiIanni has to offer the city and why ANYONE would vote for him? Is it just me? He has done nothing positive for the city AND has been convicted of illegally conducting his previous campaign.

Is it simply that cheaters always prosper in this town?

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By jason (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 09:20:25

Is it simply that cheaters always prosper in this town?

I don't see any of the over-donators hurting, do you??

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By Pxtl (registered) - website | Posted October 14, 2010 at 09:37:27

Every apolitical person I've heard has said "Well, I'll give Di Ianni another chance - Fred botched the stadium".

It isn't until I point out the changes they've taken for granted - the rejuvination of west Downtown, the bike lanes, the MIP that they realize that city council is even doing anything.

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By Charles (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 09:53:43

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By nobrainer (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 10:00:08

^MIP wouldn't have happened without strong Council support, also a couple of years ago a developer tried to build a big box plaza in MIP designated lands and Council pushed back hard saying it must be reserved for innovation employment lands.

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By jason (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 10:14:49

clearly I need to do up a blog report outlining some of the city's accomplishments over the past 4 years. Strange for me to be saying this, but this might be the best council we've had in decades.

The old media isn't educating the public at all about the real performance and issues. They are too busy being the 'voice of the Cats' and allowing one minor issue dominate the airwaves. The Spec has covered the issue fairly well, other than having a free campaign piece for DiIanni twice a week.

I'm 33 and I can't remember a mayor with an actual vision for rebuilding this city like Fred.

Off the top of my head:

  • bike lanes
  • transit terminal
  • Gore pedestrianization
  • market/library reno
  • two-way conversions
  • WH as a main priority
  • LRT champion. Previous mayors had no clue what LRT was
  • Conference Board of Canada ranking us #2 in Canada in growth
  • Site Selection Mag ranking us as a great place to invest
  • over $1 billion in building permits this year for the first time in the city's history.

Oh, did I mention that the rest of the world was suffering through the worst economy since the Great Depression while little Hamilton was busy setting records, attracting new companies and leading Canada in growth??

Think before you vote people. Nothing is ever perfect, but this last 4 years has been refreshing compared to the previous 29 years of my life which was horrendously painful. edit - painful regarding Hamilton's political leadership. Personally, my life has been fantastic. LOL. Just clarifying.

Comment edited by jason on 2010-10-14 09:26:30

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By jason (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 10:39:09

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By T-rav (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 10:49:20

Jason you got it down just to name a few. I have no problem with our mayor and I fully believe he deserves a second term. He has a lot to offer this city as well. I don't really get why anybody would want to take a step backwards and vote Di Ianni back in, it's not moving forward as a city. I believe a mayor should have two terms if they can truly make a difference and I think Fred has and still can. It was also mentioned in Freds campaign in 2006 that no mayor should have more than two consecutive terms to keep their ideas from getting weak and stale and to help this city move keep moving forward.

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By Torie (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 12:27:18

Eisenberger has had trouble with people accepting his signs on their lawn. They have encountered alot of rejection and you barely see any Eisenberger signs anywhere in Hamilton.

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By Jason (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 12:35:15

Umm, my neighbourhood is a mayor Fred sign fest. Also I was on Aberdeen yesterday from the 403 to Bay and it was a Fred fest along there too.

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By highwater (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 12:39:05

Westdale isn't a Fred 'fest' exactly, but the few signs there are belong to Fred. I've only seen 1 Di Ianni sign, and no Bratina signs.

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By T-rav (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 12:40:56

There is a lot of commited Eisenberger support but what I have experienced is that people who support the mayor generally don't want lawn signs at all but do plan of voting for him. But I am seeing more as the campaign makes it's calls asking for support and lawn sign information. You can tell when they have called threw an area when one day it's bare and two days later it's covered in mayor Freds name.

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By Pxtl (registered) - website | Posted October 14, 2010 at 12:43:56

I'm in Westdale too, and while my neighborhood is wallpapered with McHattie signs, I haven't seen any mayoral signs at all - I occasionally see them in front of businesses on main streets (Di Ianni signs alongside Tony Greco signs), but not at houses.

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By T-rav (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 12:53:00

I also remember the sepectator doing a poll a week or so ago with about 70% of people saying they don't believe election signs work at all and they are just essentially eye pollution. I am still seeing a lot less in total from 2006 though, not just Larry but all around for all candidates running for all positions.

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By mrjanitor (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 13:16:11

Ward 9 signs and people seems to be showing and strong DiIanni lean unfortunately. I'm also surprised at the amount of Brad Clark signs on lawns.

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By mystoneycreek (registered) - website | Posted October 14, 2010 at 13:17:23

Out here in Stoney Creek...and attached environs that I've either walked, been on the bus or driven through...there is a lot less election signage, period.

Nothing matters but the actual vote results. Even this discussion here seems to reflect the 'fluff' mentality we have regarding the election. I've referred to it as a 'non sequitur of campaigns', with nobody actually contributing much of anything that resembles a cogent platform, other than Butani. It's disturbing how much our culture gets caught up in the political equivalent of 'reality tv', cell phone conversations and YouTube uploads...and then we complain about our elected officials and their administrations.

Because all the stuff I so pointedly remarked on in my previous post addressing candidates' behaviour rises up from the general public. This mass is where our potential leaders in local governance come from. Their expectations become inculcated in our candidates. Their idiosyncrasies manifest themselves in our Councillors. Their mores, their codes-of-conduct are exhibited in our Mayors.

'We get the government we deserve.'

Yes. But as well, we are the government we elect.

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By Andrea (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 14:31:59

There are NO signs on my street at all and I have yet to see a candiate canvassing in my neighbourhood.

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By jason (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 17:02:55

Pxtl LOL - Strathcona is also like a giant McHattie billboard.
A buddy of mine is restraining himself from taking spray paint to some of the signs and changing them to McHottie.

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By woody10 (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 18:10:00

I'm voting Fred. Can you imagine what people will say in the future if one of the other two get in?? The first mayor convicted of an election charge or a has been radio personality with illusions of grandeur, wonderful.

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By T-rav (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 19:23:47

What I like about voting Fred is he has made and difference and will continue to do so if re-elected. Nobody really knows with the other two how things could go. I have been seeing a lot of this stuff first hand and just from all that don't see how there can be any truth to these polls going around. I think it's Fred in first with a very narrow gap with Di Ianni in second and Bratina in third, I had heard that from some people close to these things.

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By Mogadon Megalodon (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 19:26:15

If you're looking for a radical shift, I would say that turning up in hordes to vote would be a great start. Speculative polling in a municipal election always seems like a step in the opposite direction. Convince the public that things are hopelessly slanted and they'll possibly stay home.

There's enough noise in the municipal election landscape. I would prefer a rollback of nomination closing date to 12 weeks before the election date, and a ban on election signs/banners/billboards (pamphlets, postcards, handbills permitted). Call it Slow Democracy.

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By Anonymous (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 19:52:25

A yet to be published Poll I have seen commissioned by a local Development association appears to have some more realistic numbers. It was completed before Thanksgiving weekend, and will be released soon.
DiIanni 26%
Eisenberger %25%
Bratina 9%
Baldasaro 5%
Butani 5%
Undecided 22%
Remaining candidates split the 8% amongst themselves.
THIS RACE SEEMS TO BE BETWEEN DiIAINNI and EISENBERGER AND WILL BE A CLINCHER

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By fun to watch (anonymous) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 20:55:03

strictly a two horse race...no great surprise..this one sounds credible.

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By mrjanitor (registered) | Posted October 14, 2010 at 22:43:24

GO FRED GO!! YOU'RE SOOO CLOSE!

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By Paul (registered) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 03:19:23

Still waiting for a poll that can truly be considered legitimate. Not that I put much faith in them but frankly I am undecided about who to vote for Mayor. Do i vote for whom i most agree or to keep Di Ianni from returning. Unfortunately Fred is making it hard for me to vote for him due to his suppport for Aerotropolis, his constant non-answers when I ask about other development and his refusal to take a stand regarding bus fares or using the gas tax on public transit. He suggested during the last talks about fairs an even higher increase than was passed. His stance on the stadium appears strong on the surface but are we talking WH now? No we are still talking CP lands without local input.

For much of his term I found him underinformed. Now he may be more aware but is still taking backward steps especially with Aeroptropolis which I cannot emphasise enough is abad idea. Especially when you add the nearby Meadowlands Development, the return of a mid-penn highway etc. and the fact that all our other issues such as LRT will inevitably be pushed back when it doesn't pan out and we are in a worse position than before.

I also would not overly credit him with too many of the city's good accomplishments as I did not see him at the lead really of many of them.

Just feels to much like I am being forced to blindly pick a card not knowling the deck is filled with Jokers.

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By Charles (anonymous) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 08:47:43

Ken Leach has impressed me. I know he can't win but I've decided to vote on principle and support him.

I'm disillusioned with Fred and can't support Larry. Bratina would be my absolute last choice.

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By jason (registered) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 09:51:50

Paul, I'm not sure it's appropriate on one hand to blame the mayor for aerotropolis and on the other hand say he deserves no credit for all the good things that happened on his watch.
Aerotropolis has been a decade in the making. At least Fred had his motion passed the other night which will only allow it to develop in phases. Phase 2 can't start until Phase 1 is done.

I think we all know that unless something drastically changes, Phase 2 will never see the light of day.

I'd be more inclined to credit him for good things that happened on his watch and more inclined to blame him less for something like AEGD that has been rolling along for years now, long before he was mayor.

I'm just itching for Larry to bring up the Mid Pen highway. That could be the wedge issue that brings Fred back into office. All the affluent folks out in the burbs who yell and scream over a new townhome proposed next to them will flip at the prospects of an unnecessary highway cutting a swath through upper Stoney Creek, the south Mountain, Ancaster and possibly Flamborough.

Unless I'm completely out of touch with Fred, I can't see him supporting such a stupid idea. I've never seen a traffic jam in my life on the QEW east of Centennial unless there's a blizzard. We don't need a new mega-freeway cutting through farmland, small towns and Hamilton's suburbia.

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By Pxtl (registered) - website | Posted October 15, 2010 at 10:01:23

@Paul

I thought they killed the mid-penn highway.

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By Ryan (registered) - website | Posted October 15, 2010 at 10:04:02

I thought they killed the mid-penn highway.

Tim Hudak wants to bring the zombie highway back to life.

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By frank (registered) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 10:22:16

There's a traffic jam every day where the RHCE and QEW meet east of Centennial because people don't know how to merge properly.

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By jason (registered) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 11:30:57

Spec is reporting that they commissioned at national polling firm to do a poll and the mayoral results will be in tomorrow's paper.

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By Another Capitalist (anonymous) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 14:52:43

Fred is toast.

It's between Larry and Bob

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By slodrive (registered) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 16:24:57

I really wish they'd end those stupid lawn signs. If people are voting because of the signs on the street or their neighbour's lawn, they shouldn't be voting at all.

To be honest, I don't know much about DiIanni or the others. And, admittedly, much of my understanding of issues comes from the Stadium debate. I'm someone who isn't very happy with how Mayor Fred has handled that situation, but I believe in his city-building platform. Bit of an issue there. However, I have seen improvements to our city under his watch. So, I guess I'm in his court at the moment.

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By Pxtl (registered) - website | Posted October 15, 2010 at 16:55:58

@slodrive - what, exactly, do you think Mayor Fred did wrong with the stadium debate? He insists that Bob Young's complaints about the west harbour were near-silent until the last second (Young insists that he and the Cats were constantly articulating their objections). It's quickly becoming apparent that all of the sites have massive drawbacks associated with them, and so he picked the one that was the best for city-building, which, as you said, is his priority.

For most voters who are angry about the stadium, I would say that despite his apparent flip-flopping, Bratina has come out of the situation looking the best. Bratina tried to get as many alternatives examined as possible and objected to things being taken off the table... perhaps if he'd gotten his way, we'd have a more coherent and better-equipped argument rather than this mad scramble for information. The only time he really put his foot down in the whole situation was that the East Mountain was not an option - he supports urban development, same as Fred.

That said, Bratina's kind of a mess on other issues - he supports deamalgamation, which seems kind of crazy at this late date. I've heard scuttlebutt that he doesn't take Hamilton's artists seriously... there's a famous e-mail argument with Matt Jelly on that subject. This is important, since Hamilton's growing art community seems to be the main driver of the resurrection of James street. He's a good guy and I'm glad we have him on council, but I think he has trouble reaching across the generation gap, and as contradictory as it sounds, he simultaneously seems indecisive and tactless.

Di Ianni basically stands for the suburbanization of Hamilton. He has ties to the home builders, and so his return will mean a further southward push of housing sprawl, more box-malls, and likely a suburban stadium.

Personally, I support mayor Fred, but if reputable polls come out showing Bratina with a substantial lead, I'm willing to vote strategically to keep Di Ianni out of office.

Really, though, Slodrive - you should be digging into your Ward councillors. Despite the way people talk about it, the council is far more powerful than the Mayor. The Mayor's power comes from his apparent political mandate, not from his actual legal abilities which are pretty meagre. So find out about your ward - your vote is far more powerful there.

Comment edited by Pxtl on 2010-10-15 16:01:50

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By anonymous (anonymous) | Posted October 15, 2010 at 19:23:58

Scoop.
Tomorrows Spec will report Bratina trailing the two front runners whose main liabilities are:
Fred is hurt by the stadium issue
Larry is hurt by the convictions and perception of being close to developers.
Fred is edging Larry.

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By T-rav (anonymous) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 00:33:43

Yeah got the number earlier on the standings. It's sure a tight race, i guess nobody really had a really poll until now though. Bratina, Mayor Fred, Di Ianni in that order all separated by just a few numbers and the majority of voters undecided.

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By Mogadon Megalodon (anonymous) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 08:11:06

It's definitive(ly vague)! Bratina is sure to finish first, unless he ends up second or third! Make way for news!

http://www.900chml.com/Channels/Reg/NewsLocalGeneral/Story.aspx?ID=1295968

A poll commissioned by the Hamilton Spectator has former CHML morning man Bob Bratina leading with 23.4 per cent of the committed vote.

Incumbent Fred Eisenberger is a close second with 20.8 per cent followed by former mayor Larry Di Ianni at 18.3 per cent.

However, the Nanos Research poll also finds more than a quarter of those asked, just over 27 per cent, remain undecided with just over a week until voters go to the polls.

Pollster Nik Nanos says any of the three front-runners could win.

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By Mogadon Megalodon (anonymous) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 08:18:07

Question: When all of the front-runners post results that fall well within the margin of error — 23.4% of the 74% (17.3%) is considerably smaller than 100% of 27% — does this really constitute anything newsworthy?

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By Mogadon Megalodon (anonymous) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 08:35:00

Okay, looking at the fugly four-way pie over at thespec.com I'm more confused.

http://www.thespec.com/news/elections/article/267946--3-way-race

I like how they're able to detect that people would naturally defect from Fred and Larry to Bratina. I suspect Baldassaro is going to do better than ever.

At least a 20-way race is nice and simple. Thank heavens nobody in their right mind would finance a Ward 2 poll.

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By Mogadon Megalodon (anonymous) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 08:58:32

OK, last observation before I go murder an XL coffee. The poll is skewed to reflect historic voter apathy. Of their 1000 respondents:

18 to 29 = 89
30-39 = 119
40 to 49 = 194
50 to 50 = 244
60 plus = 354

Voters 49 and under = 402 of 1000 respondents
Eisenberger 21.83%, DiIanni 18.33%, Bratina 18.23%

Voters 50 to 59 = 244 of 1000 respondents
Eisenberger 21.7%, Bratina 21.3%, DiIanni 18.0%

Voters 60 and over = 354 of 1000 respondents
Bratina 30.2%, DiIanni 18.1%, Eisenberger 17.5%

Grain of salt.

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By bigguy1231 (registered) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 12:53:51

Spectator polls in previous elections have been way off of the final results. So I wouldn't put to much faith in this one.

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By Kevin B (anonymous) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 13:14:54

Even if you did put faith in this poll, the difference between the top 3 is virtually non-existant with a 3% margin of error.

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By Roi Vert (anonymous) | Posted October 16, 2010 at 13:25:44

So it turns out that the grey-haired "remember when" morning man from a west end AM talk radio station with a pro-seniors platform rates highly among west enders aged 60+. I for one have had my mind blown.

Also, if 27% are undecided, what's the real "margin of error"?

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By Woody10 (registered) | Posted October 22, 2010 at 10:54:48

Please, please, please let's start using common sense. The mentality of some people in this city is truly dumbfounding. Don't vote for a criminal who pushes towards the past and don't vote for a man who has no concept of the value of youth and families in this city. He's a crappy radio host for $&@$ sakes. And he is going to run a major city? God help us. Rant.

Comment edited by Woody10 on 2010-10-22 09:55:06

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