By Adrian Duyzer
Published October 13, 2010
The Spectator reported today that a poll conducted for the Di Ianni campaign has Di Ianni leading the race for mayor with 27 percent support, followed by 21 percent for Bratina and just 14 percent for Eisenberger.
According to the poll, 32 percent of voters remain undecided.
Di Ianni campaign manager Ken Audziss claims the poll was leaked, although given its source - a Di Ianni supporter who "received it from the campaign as an update" - it's hard for me to understand how the Di Ianni campaign expected this would remain confidential.
I've received several unconfirmed reports now, through various sources, about polls that have been conducted in the past few weeks.
The first rumour, which emerged a couple of weeks ago, had Di Ianni in front, followed by Eisenberger, with Bratina significantly behind.
Just this weekend I spoke with a politically well-connected person who said that a poll, which was conducted by a "reputable" polling firm and that was not done on behalf of the Di Ianni campaign, placed Bratina in the lead, followed by Di Ianni, followed by Eisenberger. When I mentioned this to another politically well-connected individual, he told me this was the third time he'd heard it.
Now there's this much more substantiated report about a poll that has Di Ianni in front. It's hard to say what's true, and it's hard to say what's accurate, but I do find it interesting that none of the polls I've heard about have Eisenberger ahead.
Two other thoughts:
1. Why haven't we seen any polls sponsored by local media yet? If I had the budget, I'd sponsor one myself. Let's see some publicly available polling data!
2. I'm trying to decide if the "news" that Bratina is ahead of Eisenberger is actually a strategy by the Di Ianni campaign. Suppose that it is not true and Eisenberger is in fact ahead of Bratina. Di Ianni could benefit from a belief that Bratina was in front, because it would appear to those who are opposed to Di Ianni that their best hope is to vote for Bratina - effectively splitting the vote between Bratina and Eisenberger and letting Di Ianni go up the middle.