Comment 103283

By KevinLove (registered) | Posted July 19, 2014 at 00:11:31

Thank you, Jason, for an excellent article. Your description of yourself as a "nervous cyclist" puts you in the majority. This majority is the 60% of the population that are interested but concerned when it comes to cycling.

The link describes an excellent model, that has been validated by surveys in many, many places. Described in a Hamilton context, the entire population can be broken down into four types of cyclists.

1% of the population is "Strong and Fearless." They will cycle for everyday transportation even in the face of a lack of cycle infrastructure.

7% of the population is "Enthused and Confident." They will cycle for transportation on the sort of crappy, sub-standard cycle infrastructure that is currently being deployed in Hamilton.

60% of the population is "Interested but Concerned." They will cycle for transportation only on a dense, fine-grained network of safe Dutch standard cycle infrastructure.

32% of the population are currently non-cyclists "No way, no how." They will cycle for transportation only on safe Dutch standard cycle infrastructure AND cycling must be significantly faster, easier and more convenient than alternate modes of transportation.

The proof of a good model is that it accurately predicts the future. What this model predicts is that the current lack of infrastructure should correspond to a 1% cycling mode share. And it does.

The model predicts that the crappy, sub-standard cycle infrastructure currently being deployed in Hamilton has the potential to raise this mode share to a not-so-whopping 8%. The preliminary feedback is that, yes, this crappy infra is enabling more cycling. No doubt lots of politicians and city staff will sprain their hands patting themselves on the back while saying things like "eight times as much cycling!" while conveniently ignoring the ugly truth that 92% of the population is still excluded.

Comment edited by KevinLove on 2014-07-19 00:14:18

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