Comment 111685

By ItJustIs (registered) | Posted May 21, 2015 at 17:23:03

This law has been around for decades, but not used for over 30 years. The cost of moving the yards is what the major issue is, and not the will or the law.

Suppose that the costs of the move out of West Harbour and the rebuild on the Stelco lands would be around +/- $400 million dollars. And the cost of remediation of the lands to build residential, roads and parks is +/- $50 million, and the cost of servicing the lands (sewers, elect, gas, water, storm etc) would run to +/- $150 million. This comes to around $600 Million.

Even if the Prov/Feds kick in 50% of cost which is $300 million, since the move has to be revenue-neutral for the railway company, the balance of the burden of such a move falls on the city. Resulting in the raising of taxes on the residential base of Hamilton.

The assessment revenues from all the development has to be around $300 million for the city to justify such investments re: recouping the investment. That would take 85,000 units (eighty-five thousand units: comprising of condos/homes/towns/semis/offices/retail etc) at $3500 per unit to recoup the investments made by the city. (Assuming that the Prov/Feds are not seeking any returns on their 50% portion of the investment).

As an example of visualizing the density and built out for 5000 units (i.e 25 towers with 200 units per tower, or a mix of units there off), at $3500/year, per unit of tax revenue for city will bring $17.5 Million per year. It would take --25-- years to recoup $437,500,000 (being about the value of the $300 million + interest/charges of the original 50% of the cost of the move).

Such is the math on such a move.

Assuming the Prov/Feds tomorrow say "OK, so here's the $300 mil...let's see your half." Do Hamilton residents have the stomach for such an investment? Especially in light of the current taxes already making many properties across the city unaffordable for so many seniors on fixed income and younger gens with no job prospects/security...and the investments already committed for the airport lands, Pier 8, the infrastructure deficit and the B-Line LRT and BLAST network?

What are the odds of ANYONE taking the reins here? Slim and none, and Slim just left town.

Comment edited by ItJustIs on 2015-05-21 17:24:15

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