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By HWDSB (anonymous) | Posted January 30, 2014 at 11:21:56
Ryan, regarding your comment that "The Board estimates future enrollment based on previous years" you may be interested in the details below:
HWDSB enrolment projections are made up of two separate components that include the existing school community and students generated by new development. The existing community projections are developed by advancing students through the grades based on historical, by-grade retention rates. The retention rates are grade specific and capture any gains or losses in enrolment that a school may experience as students move from one grade to another. Retention rate methodology is a common practice in Ontario School Boards.
By applying historical student enrolment (by unit type) to municipally approved development forecasts, planning staff have the ability to project the number of students generated by new development. These two components combined make up the enrolment projections. Enrolment projections can be done for a variety of time frames. One year, five year or 10 year projections are typical time frames used by the Accommodation and Planning Division.
There are a number of school specific assumptions that are also captured in the projections. These assumptions can be related to specific programs, board policies that may affect enrolment numbers like out of catchment or new Ministry initiatives such as full-day kindergarten.
Projections are then cross-referenced against historical enrolment trends, population forecasts, Census data and live birth data in order to judge alignment of enrolment numbers against these sources.
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