Comment 114240

By kevlahan (registered) | Posted October 13, 2015 at 12:39:52 in reply to Comment 114239

I'm sorry, but you do not understand basic statistics.

If I told you your risk of dying of heart disease is only 2% per year, but your lifetime risk of dying of heart disease is 80% would you brush this off as negligible because the risk each year is low?

These calculations are basic statistics. To get the 37% you consider 80 trials in each of which your chance of not being injured is 1-3000/520000. Thus, the chance of not being injured over your lifetime is (1-3000/520000)^80, or 63%. Since there are only two outcomes (you are either injured or you are not injured), your chance of being injured is 100-63% = 37%.

And don't forget that there is a big difference between completely preventable (in principle) premature deaths (like being killed by a car) and death by disease or physical debilitation in old age. Everyone dies eventually, and the majority of those 100,000 deaths are not what Statistics Canada would call "premature" (younger than 75) and about 2/3 are for those 70 and older. The peak age for deaths in Canada is now 85.

And, most importantly, people care not just about deaths, but about being injured (especially severe injuries). With 3000 injuries per year in Hamilton alone, motor vehicles are a very big risk.

Comment edited by kevlahan on 2015-10-13 12:50:46

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