Raise the Hammer

Between 1993-2000, oil averaged less than $20 USD/barrel. So, let's look at Alberta's GDP (Chained 2002 Dollars [https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3610031201#timeframe] ) vs Canada's during this time frame...

Canada $834.2B - $1,100.5B, 4.03%/yr. Alberta $107.3B - $144.9B, 4.39%/yr.

Now let's look at both GDP's between 2000-10, when oil rose to over $140USD/ barrel...

Canada $1,100.5B - $1,324.9B, 1.87%/yr Alberta $144.9B - $183.3B, 2.38%/yr

As we can see, Alberta's economy outpaced Canada's in both periods. Oddly enough, we also see that Alberta's economy grew much slower in the second period, even with rising oil prices. I couldn't find Alberta oil production going back to 2000, so I used Canada's as a proxy (https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/crude-oil-production). Between 1993-2000, Canada's oil production output grew by 3.2%/yr. Between 2000-2010, it grew about the same.

It gets weird here. Between 2010-2018, Canada's oil production grew from 2.5M barrels - 4.5M barrels. Assuming Alberta grew as fast as the national avg, let's look at Alberta's real GDP between 2010-18...

1993-2000: Canada's oil production up 3.2%/yr, Alberta real GDP up 4.38%/yr. 2010-2018: Canada's oil production up 7.6%/yr, Alberta real GDP up 2.58%/yr.

It's obvious Alberta, whatever people say, doesn't require a booming oil industry to grow. That said, Alberta did benefit from the right economic environment between 1993-2000. Let's compare some metrics in the two periods...

1993-2000: Gold price stayed around $400CAD/ounce. Prov exp's grew by 1.76%/yr. 2010-18: Gold rose from $1,125CAD/ounce - $1,625. Prov exp's (2008-16) grew by 3.33%/yr

So, between 1993-2000, even with higher interest rates (explains why loonie was strong vs gold) and tight fiscal policy, Alberta's economy boomed. Fast forward to 2010-18, when interest rates were very low (explains loonie's weakness vs gold) and higher prov spending, Alberta's economy grew about half as fast as 93-00.

Bottom line, Albverta doesn't require an ever expanding oil sector to grow, but it does benefit from the old fashioned economic policy of sound money and limited govt.