Comment 68364

By Undustrial (registered) - website | Posted August 23, 2011 at 11:25:46 in reply to Comment 68352

Oh Kunstler. If only he could settle down a bit... This definitely deserves a bit of a note about the extremely difficult nature of predicting anything more than a year ahead.

It wasn't long before most of those who were talking about peak oil and weren't just alarmist wingnuts started realizing this would be a lot more complicated than a steady march onward to $500/barrel then a prompt apocalypse. Ryan's comment below is a good example - high oil prices rely on a strong economy, which relies on low oil prices. So rather than a constant and predictable fall, we're far more likely to see prices lurching wildly. Beneath all of this will be the trends we're talking about.

"Peak oil" describes a fairly abstract concept - the point at which oil production begins to fall as scarcity and increasing energy requirements overtake our ability to continue raising production. There's nothing "neat" about it - areas peak at different times, and a global peak might never be totally definable down to the day. That day isn't what's important though, it's the falling EROI (Energy Return on Investment) which we need to consider.

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